(Relevant Graphics Follow The Text)
There are chances for rain in Houston the next several days. But the concentrated thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical feature (somewhat like the remnants of “Tropical Depression 5” if that is what you want to call it) eludes SE TX until perhaps the middle of next week. A frontal structure may linger over the central and eastern Gulf Coast much of next week, yielding a “near, yet so far” solution of heavy rainfall with thunder in Louisiana that largely disappears west of the Sabine River. But as high pressure builds across the Midwest, the mean flow aloft and at surface will be easterly. For that reason, the GFS and ECMWF model packages are showing a redevelopment scenario for the disturbance, edging the circulation westwaed along the coastline of LA into TX. There is a small possibility a center could form over the warm water. perhaps for this reason (and the slow net motion of the low), the American scheme suggests that a staggering amount of rain will fall in the Bayou City into Galveston on Wednesday and Thursday (see attached graphics below).
As of this writing, there are no clear-cut candidates for warm-core cyclogenesis across the entire Atlantic Basin. In the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter on Saturday, I will explain why some of the forecasts for the worst hurricane season since 2005 are not working out. This is not to say we are “out of the woods” for tropical cyclone activity this summer and fall (that is probably not the case). However, the past two months offer a good example why it is important to gaze at the upper level winds and surface features. Before, that is, you assume that abundant warm water, a growing La Nina episode and whatever new index that is being trotted out instantly give the green light for media hype and alarmist predictions.
Stay cool in the meantime….and keep watching that disturbance to our east!
Friday: Partly cloudy, hot, humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 93 Bacliff to 97 North Houston
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, warm, and humid. Risk of a thunderstorm toward daybreak. Lows 77 San Felipe to 81 Pasadena
Saturday: Partly sunny, hazy, hot and humid. Risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 95 Texas City to 99 Sealy
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, warm, and humid. Lows 78 Monaville to 82 Clear Lake
Sunday: Partly sunny, hazy, hot and humid. Risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 94 Friendswood to 98 Fulshear
Monday: Hazy sunshine, hot, and humid. High 97, Low 79
Tuesday: Hazy sunshine, hot, humid. Increasing cloudiness at night. High 98, Low 80
Wednesday: Rain and thunderstorms, possibly heavy. Very humid. High 89, Low 78
Plymouth State University Weather Server