The cluster of rain located just north of Puerto Rico has shown signs of better organization since the overnight report. The National Hurricane Center has brought the chance of development up to 40%, which is considered ‘medium’. Sustained winds may reach over 40 mph in the next two days. Even if it takes a little longer, the chance for development at some point this week is pretty strong.
This ‘vigorous’ wave is drifting to the west northwest and is producing very heavy rainfall. The TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) map shows rates of rain in these slow moving bands of rain close to 1 inch per hour. See that and other satellite images in the slide show below.
A composite of five computer model forecasts here show an 80% agreement that this system will increase maximum sustained winds over 35 knots (40 mph) and get named. The next name on the Atlantic Storm List for 2010 is Bonnie.
Once that occurs, the environment is favorable for further development to hurricane strength by day 5 (over the weekend). Forecast models take this into the vicinity of the Bahamas and southern Florida. See that outlook and more in the slide show below.
Satellite Loop Videos
- Tuesday Afternoon Satellite Loops
- Satellite Loop at Landfall
- Satellite Loop crossing the Yucatan
- GOES 2 Day Loop Shows TS Alex Developing
- Infared Satellite Floater with Rainbow Coloring. June 26th morning 6 hour loop
- Infared Satellite Wide View with Rainbow Coloring June 26th morning 6 hour loop
- Visible and Infared Satellite Wide View. June 26th morning 6 hour loop
- Water Vapor Satellite Wide View. June 26th morning 6 hour loop.
Hurricane Alex (landfall video) was our only other named tropical storm so far this year. It was considered early, forming in June in what is expected to be an active season. As far as Alex is concerned:
- First June Hurricane since 1995, or in 15 years.
- Normally a June Hurricane forms once every 5 years.
- The first Category Two storm in June since 1966.
See the complete list of reports on Alex here.
Hurricane 2010 Forecast Pages
2010 Hurricane Season: Atlantic Names
2010 NOAA Hurricane season outlook graphics
2010 Hurricane Season: NOAA forecast for a very active year
2010 Hurricane Season: Accuweather calls for active year and major landfalls
Hurricane Season 2010 forecast video: Chimp takes on NOAA
Interactive Hurricane Tracker
NEW: Satellite Loop Movie: 72 hours of Total Precipitable Water and TRMM
What is Storm Surge?
Hurricane Awareness Week Links
- Hurricane Awareness Week: History of storms 1900-1979
- Hurricane Awareness Week: History of Atlantic storms 1980-2005
- Hurricane Awareness Week: Storm surge highlights oil danger on Louisiana coast
- Hurricane Awareness Week: Inland Flooding
- What is Storm Surge?
For more info:
Looping Gulf Coast radar and local radars for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida here.
Oil Spill and potential hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico; Live streaming video of oil leak
See the latest oil news and oil projections maps from the Gulf Oil Spill Examiner.