In this link the model of projected oil movement from the BP oil leak in the Gulf as studied by NOAA can be read. After reading it, I felt compelled to write something that perhaps is more realistic than their conclusions. This does not question NOAA credentials but its sincerity omitting some of the facts and possibilities.
NOAA report is at the least inconclusive, far off and deceiving. There is no mention of the oil that is under the surface which accounts for the largest percentage. They have presumed that it will vanish forever in the depths of the Gulf to never be seen again. It does not mention storms which could not only reverse their conclusion but also stir up oil that is not on the surface and wash it ashore. It does not mention what would happen if the well could not be contained as schedule. The prevailing winds during summer are different that in winter. When cold fronts reach the Gulf States in late Fall, Winter and early Spring strong winds blow first from the SW to W to NW to N and this sometime lasts for a week. Such would push the surface oil towards the Florida West coast.
Their most important omission is that some experts believe including BP that there could be more than 100,000 barrels leaked daily. NOAA model also stops the leak at 90 days and there is nothing beyond 120 days. Their model does not even consider mentioning the Methane that has leaked and mixed with the ocean water. The latter sounds like the 9/11 Official Report not making mention of building 7 as if had never existed.
In NOAA report: “…The model assumes that oil is released at an average rate of 33,000 barrels per day for 90 days. The model predicts the location of oil after 120 days from the start…”
Could their model be considered an accurate projection? Everything hinges on where they can stop the leak by mid August as they have planned. There are now open talks in the media about the nuke option and that is not good. The media is used to get people acclimated to concepts, so the fact that they are doing such is not a good sign. Most would rather let it leak and try to contain it the best possible way than nuking it. An explosion of that magnitude could open up the ocean floor and maybe even create a volcano. It would be like tossing a coin where heads is, you are in deep trouble, tails you are dead.
Even if the leak is fixed, now that the public knows that there are 50,000 rigs in the Gulf, about 27,000 wells abandoned some of which could be leaking, and more deep drilling to take place. One could wonder if we are not dealing with a ticking time bomb and we are doomed in Florida anyway.
Regardless, even if we don’t have a catastrophic event but just the current leak, Florida’s future is bleak. With fishing and beach tourism eliminated or heavily damaged, Florida could become a ghost town. Florida produces little other than entertainment and sea food. For decades, a large source of revenue has been an increase in the value in the Real Estate market that people cashed and spent and northerners moving into the state with their pensions and 401ks. Much of Florida revenues are gone forever, so where does that leave us? If there are no jobs and the government does not support those who are unemployed, then you cannot stay in that town. Ask the people of Detroit.
Most of the time people who make doomed prognostications are not taken seriously for it is not what most hope to hear. We can only hope that none of the above takes place but it would be foolish to ignore it. Anything that sounds better than reality is only a wish. It is time to wake up and realize that problems have to be resolved and not just wish that they would go away. Most of the problems that we are facing today have no short term solutions and even the long term solutions would be very painful. We are a spoiled society and most do not want to feel pain in order to survive. They believe that suicide is painless so that is how they may be planning to survive.
The least that NOAA could have done was to be honest and better inform the people not just give them an inaccurate best case scenario. They didn’t even predict any oil to reach East Texas but Galveston has already seen tar balls. In our particular case, BP is supposed to be trying to solve the problem. Can we be sure of that; there is a lot behind the scenes that do not make sense. In any case, to assume that we will be healed by BP is equivalent to as having the thief who robbed and stabbed us also try to nurse our wounds. If this scenario makes anyone feel more comfortable then go ahead, I am going to look at it in a more realistic way.