After 17 days of August, the drought situation has not dramatically improved from the dry spell Long Island has seen for several months. Since a very wet early spring, The entire Northeast Region is severely lacking in important rainfall, with current patterns not helping the cause. With high pressure occasionally building in from the north and keeping most fronts dry, August has been a very dry month after late July looked promising to end the water woes. So far this month only 0.12″ of rain has fallen at Islip/MacArthur Airport. With summertime rain being mostly scattered in nature, even widespread rainfall has not been seen for a few weeks. Case in point, even Central Park is barely above a quarter inch of rain this month.
The forecast is calling for much of the same, and perhaps now it’s time for municipalities and water suppliers to reconsider water restrictions if the weather pattern doesn’t change very soon. A frontal boundary, stubborn to leave on Tuesday, is stalled close to the Island on Wednesday. Rain will mainly be well offshore, but it doesn’t make much of a beach day with considerable cloud cover. Rainfall totals shouldn’t amount to much, if any, but the South Shore may get nicked with a few raindrops. The front and a low riding along it both leave for Thursday and a weak cold front comes through on Friday. Yes, that front is dry so don’t expect any rain from it.
The weekend can be half salvaged with a nice day on Saturday but clouds dominate Sunday. This is the beginning of a complex pattern that resembles a bit of early fall (not in terms of temperature though). It looks like the jet stream dips southward and a cutoff low starts to form. This low may spawn something else early next week off the mid-Atlantic coast. Essentially the rain chances increase, first on Sunday with timing and amounts to be determined. Then Monday and Tuesday may feature a good deal of clouds and rain chances will be there. The complexity of the pattern is throwing off forecasters and computer models can’t keep a handle on consistency. However, in no way is anything a drought buster.
Looking to the tropics, all is quiet. An active season was forecasted in May and was reaffirmed (although downgraded a bit) last month. Three named storms and a couple of other rainmaking tropical depressions is all the hurricane season can muster so far. Heading into the peak of the season, there’s barely a storm to be found. One unorganized wave in the Caribbean isn’t expected to make much of an impact beyond some rain for anyone braving a vacation down in Jamaica or Caymans over the next few days.
I’m finally back from a few days off and now returning to the daily grind. Feel free to email me any weather pics at michaelfleona @gmail.com. They may be featured in a future article.